Rainstone FX Ltd 9th November 2026
The dollar starts the week in a firm position after a strong run of US data, while sterling is a little below last week’s highs despite the Bank of England raising rates to 4%. This week brings US inflation figures, UK growth data and a steady stream of central bank speakers.
Market Recap
USD: The dollar rose against every major currency last week except the Swiss franc. Traders now see roughly a 79% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates on 9 December, up from 71% a week earlier. Several Fed officials said on Friday that inflation remains too high and that further rate rises are likely.
GBP: Sterling briefly moved above 1.35 against the dollar for the first time since mid-September before slipping back after the Bank of England's rate rise. It starts the week around 1.34 and remains close to 1.20 against the euro.
The bigger question for sterling is what comes next. Markets are pricing in three more Bank of England rate rises by the end of next year, while many analysts expect only one further move, most likely in February. If the Bank ultimately delivers less than the market expects, sterling may find it harder to extend its recent gains.
EUR: The euro is trading around 1.115 against the dollar, not far from its weakest level since May 2025. With France still a concern and little support coming from recent European data, some analysts believe the euro could face further pressure, with 1.10 emerging as the next key level to watch.
AUD, NZD and CAD: The Australian dollar lost around 2% last week, its weakest weekly performance in more than a year, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates. It starts the week near 0.69.
In New Zealand, the weekend election was too close to call, with official results not expected until 27 November. The kiwi has recovered slightly to around 0.56, but uncertainty is likely to remain.
The Canadian dollar is also under pressure following surprise job losses, with USD/CAD trading around 1.41.
With the Bank of England, Fed and ECB all shaping expectations for the months ahead, markets are increasingly focused on what central banks do next rather than what they have already done.
Key Events This Week
Monday: Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks Tuesday: US inflation Wednesday: US bond markets closed for Veterans Day, German final inflation Thursday: UK growth figures (GDP), New Zealand inflation expectations Friday: US producer prices, eurozone trade figures
US inflation on Tuesday is the headline event of the week. Forecasts point to a monthly rise of 0.3% in the headline figure and 0.2% in the core measure. A stronger result would support the case for a December rate rise and could push the dollar higher. A softer number could take some momentum out of the dollar and encourage markets to reassess expectations for December.
For sterling, Thursday's UK GDP figures are expected to show growth slowing to around 0.4% in the third quarter from 0.5% in the second. Weaker growth would add weight to the view that the Bank of England will not need to do much more, which could take some of the shine off the pound. Governor Bailey's comments will also be watched closely for any clues on how he views the path ahead.
Oil and the Middle East remain in the background. Hopes of a calmer outlook have helped ease energy prices recently, but headlines can change quickly and often move currencies with them.
Rainstone Insight
Sterling has moved within a range of roughly two cents against the dollar over the past fortnight, despite little change in the bigger picture. It is a useful reminder that currencies can swing on a single headline or data release, and that picking the perfect day to move funds is often very difficult.
This is why many clients choose to split larger payments into stages or work towards a target rate, rather than relying on a single moment in the market. It spreads the risk and takes some of the pressure out of the decision.
If you have a payment coming up, whether for business, property or personal reasons, it is worth thinking about what approach suits you before the next round of major data releases arrives.
If you would like support with your international payments, get in touch with the Rainstone team. We are watching the markets closely, so you do not have to.